Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.003185 0.003482 0.003798 0.004162 0.004568 0.005010 0.005527
2025-12-21 0.002630 0.003038 0.003502 0.004074 0.004764 0.005573 0.006603
2025-12-28 0.002319 0.002778 0.003325 0.004031 0.004928 0.006040 0.007543
2026-01-04 0.002127 0.002623 0.003236 0.004060 0.005151 0.006570 0.008590
2026-01-11 0.001944 0.002455 0.003106 0.004008 0.005248 0.006927 0.009428
2026-01-18 0.001800 0.002321 0.003001 0.003972 0.005352 0.007288 0.010295
2026-01-25 0.001674 0.002197 0.002897 0.003922 0.005422 0.007597 0.011108
2026-02-01 0.001584 0.002115 0.002841 0.003930 0.005570 0.008025 0.012142
2026-02-08 0.001487 0.002016 0.002752 0.003881 0.005624 0.008310 0.012973
2026-02-15 0.001395 0.001917 0.002655 0.003810 0.005634 0.008522 0.013700
2026-02-22 0.001338 0.001864 0.002621 0.003829 0.005785 0.008968 0.014875
2026-03-01 0.001305 0.001844 0.002634 0.003921 0.006056 0.009637 0.016528
2026-03-08 0.001233 0.001763 0.002554 0.003866 0.006092 0.009926 0.017556
2026-03-15 0.001160 0.001678 0.002462 0.003786 0.006081 0.010135 0.018468
2026-03-22 0.001103 0.001614 0.002398 0.003746 0.006134 0.010463 0.019661
2026-03-29 0.001065 0.001576 0.002374 0.003772 0.006304 0.011024 0.021419
2026-04-05 0.001014 0.001517 0.002312 0.003725 0.006335 0.011319 0.022648
2026-04-12 0.000971 0.001467 0.002260 0.003692 0.006390 0.011665 0.024040
2026-04-19 0.000928 0.001415 0.002203 0.003647 0.006415 0.011950 0.025332
2026-04-26 0.000899 0.001383 0.002176 0.003654 0.006542 0.012460 0.027251
2026-05-03 0.000861 0.001336 0.002124 0.003609 0.006561 0.012741 0.028643
2026-05-10 0.000823 0.001287 0.002063 0.003544 0.006534 0.012917 0.029793
2026-05-17 0.000801 0.001263 0.002046 0.003562 0.006678 0.013491 0.032107